Trump made HUGE promises during the campaign. Some were preposterous: “I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall.” Some were blatantly unconstitutional: “… calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States …”. Some were merely beyond the normal constitutional power of the President:
Here’s what’s going to happen, They’re going to call me and they are going to say ‘Mr. President, Carrier has decided to stay in Indiana’. One hundred percent — that’s what is going to happen, It’s not like we have an 80 percent chance of keeping them or a 95 percent. 100 percent.
Here is my prognostication: Mexico’s sovereignty will prevail; religious freedom will prevail; but the Carrier factory will stay in Indiana.
This is not just wild speculation on my part:
- Unlike most of the job that he has signed up for, this is Trump’s meat and potatoes. He might be skipping the intelligence briefings, but, even on Thanksgiving Day, he is sinking his teeth into this deal.
- Trump has built his business by bullying contractors: refusing to pay them, driving up the legal expenses of those who dare sue him in court, and using his clout to punish those who deign to cross him in any way. Now, this bully has the entire executive branch behind him, and he is not above stretching his constitutional powers to punish someone who crosses him. Trump can make life very difficult for for the company if he chooses to, and not just with his twitter account.
- United Technologies, the company that owns the Carrier factory, has defense contracts worth over $23 billion dollars. This gives Trump quite a bit of leverage.
- United Technologies is in business to make money. There is little profit in standing up to a tyrant. Businessmen around the world know you make money by cooperating with the powers that be.
- Even Bernie Sanders is on Trump’s side in this.
So, the Carrier factory will stay in Indiana. Perhaps Trump and his Republicans will reward them with some protectionist trade barriers so they won’t have to compete with foreign manufacturers in the American market. Perhaps this will start a trade war, followed by a global recession, like what happened in the 1920s and 30s (I forget. Was that when America was great?).
So, on this one promise, Trump will deliver. The workers in one factory will be happy.